About this Site

The climate change projections for Australia released in 2015 were primarily developed to support the planning needs of Australia’s natural resource management sector, and to provide information to assist climate adaptation processes. However, the information presented on this website covers the whole of Australia so may be useful for applications outside of the natural resource management community.

Since 2015, additional and/or updated information has been incorporated as appropriate. In December 2020, the website's design and navigation were refreshed, content updated and new content added. In May 2025, the website was updated to provide users with access to data from the Australian Climate Service based on climate modelling undertaken since 2015.

Information available on this site exists in two distinct categories:

Summary climate projection statements

These are based on climate model data, but also synthesise additional information (such as model evaluation and downscaling) and include confidence assessment. These, mainly qualitative, statements provide key contextual information for the quantitative information also available on the website, as well as providing key messages for a range of purposes.

They are drawn from the conclusions of the Cluster and Technical Reports, where supporting analysis may also be found. On the website, these statements are best viewed by using the Regional Climate Explorer which allows users to navigate through key messages across the clusters and sub-clusters.

Although most of the key messages remain valid, the summary statements and Cluster and Technical Reports are based on the previous (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, or ‘CMIP5’) generation of Global Climate Model (GCM) data. They have not been updated to include information from the current (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, or ‘CMIP6’) generation of GCMs.

Climate model data

Climate model data from the full set of CMIP5 GCMs has been assessed for Australia (and for the four available greenhouse gas emissions scenarios) and can be explored through a number of the projection tools. 

Website users are also able to download CMIP5 climate projections data, and a more limited set of CMIP6 projections data. There are three types of data available data for download. These are:

CMIP5 projected change data – Projected climate changes from CMIP5 GCMs relative to the 1986-2005 baseline. Annual, seasonal and monthly data is available at 20-year time slices centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. These data are presented as projected ranges of change based on the 10-90th percentile of the model range (as bar plots and tables), and for individual models (via the Map Explorer)

CMIP5 application ready data – Projected climate changes from CMIP5 GCMs applied to a 30-year observational data set (1981-2010). These data are supplied for eight individual climate models that are representative of the range of results for Australia from the full suite of CMIP5 GCMs.

CMIP6 application ready data – Projected climate changes from CMIP6 GCMs applied to a 30-year observational data set (1985-2014). These data are supplied by the Australian Climate Service for nine individual climate models that have been selected for dynamical downscaling over Australia. They perform relatively well at simulating relevant aspects of the climate and are representative of some of the range of results for Australia from the full suite of CMIP6 GCMs.

The two categories of CMIP5 data are provided at different levels of spatial detail to suit different purposes: NRM super-clusters, NRM clusters, NRM sub-clusters (both statements and data), gridded (i.e., raster) data and data for selected cities and towns. The CMIP6 data are only available as gridded data.

Note that the climate model data (from CMIP5 or CMIP6) do not factor in additional lines evidence considered in the climate projection statements, and users of climate model data are advised to also consult contextual statements and confidence ratings for key contextual information.